Kathmandu. An Indian institution has concluded that no political party will secure a majority in the elections scheduled for Falgun 21. The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), which conducts research for the Indian government, reached this conclusion.
Research conducted by IDSA researcher Dr. Nihar Nayak concluded that no party will be able to win a majority. It is anticipated that the main competition in the election will be among the five major parties: Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).
The research suggests that the competition for forming a government will be between UML and RSP among these parties. According to the research article, a coalition government will be formed after the election.
According to IDSA, UML has a nationwide organizational base. RSP has the main base for expressing the electoral dissatisfaction of the Gen Z generation. These two parties are in a position to lead competing coalitions. IDSA stated that even if the 2026 election does not yield a clear winner, it will ultimately depend on which side determines the terms of Nepal's next coalition government.
The Congress, which emerged as the largest party in the 2022 elections, is still struggling to resolve internal disputes. IDSA concludes that even after holding a special general convention and electing Gagan Thapa as president, the party remains structurally weak.
Furthermore, Congress is accused of being a partner party to UML, which is accused of using force against Gen Z protestors. Meanwhile, President Thapa has yet to receive active support from former President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who still holds significant influence in Sudurpashchim and other regions. Other senior leaders from the Deuba faction have also appeared inactive during the campaign.
Although UML is organizationally strong, IDSA concludes that fielding party chairman Oli as the prime ministerial candidate in the upcoming election risks losing youth support. Additionally, under Oli's leadership, UML has faced criticism for poor performance, corruption, nepotism, and authoritarian tendencies.
Prachanda formed the CPN (Maoist Centre) by uniting various parties. IDSA understands that Prachanda formed the CPN after the party's electoral credibility began to decline following Janardan Sharma's departure from the Maoist Centre in 2025. This party has consistently performed poorly since the 2013 elections.
It has often secured a respectable number of seats in the House of Representatives through electoral alliances with Congress or UML. IDSA concludes that if the CPN (Maoist Centre) contests the upcoming election alone, its very existence could be in jeopardy.
RSP is a four-year-old party that IDSA believes lacks a clear ideology or proven leadership. It only participated in the 2022 elections and focused on populist issues.
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Its organizational structure is weak. Its presence is limited outside Kathmandu and Pokhara. The party relies on the popularity of its senior leaders and its official prime ministerial candidate, Balen Shah, along with its popular stances.
However, Dr. Nihar of IDSA concludes that although the party appears united, there is a conflict of personal ambitions between Rabi Lamichhane, Balen Shah, and Swarnim Wagle, who was previously in Congress. Furthermore, many senior leaders have already left the party due to internal democracy issues and Rabi Lamichhane's leadership style.
RPP holds a distinct role in Nepali politics. Its main electoral goals are the restoration of the monarchy and the establishment of a Hindu nation. Like other major parties, it is plagued by factionalism and repeated splits.
Following the Gen Z movement, as the political landscape in Nepal changed and democratic forces struggled to bring stability, RPP's Lingden and RPP-Nepal's Kamal Thapa united as a second alternative. However, RPP has yet to select a prime ministerial candidate, which raises questions about its internal unity. Despite being the third oldest party, it has generally received only about 4 percent of the popular vote since 2008.
Analyzing all five parties, Dr. Nihar's research clearly indicates that no party will secure a majority. Older parties have strong organizations but face problems with internal discipline and leadership.
However, while RSP has young leadership, its candidates are weak, and its presence at the grassroots level is poor. IDSA concludes that RSP might aim for more proportional representation seats, while established parties will focus on direct elections due to their organizational strength. This situation suggests a possibility of a coalition government led by RSP, Congress, or UML.
Researcher Dr. Nihar claims that for this election, taking place after the Gen Z movement, no party has presented a credible election manifesto that meets Gen Z expectations. Nepal requires over $48 billion USD in infrastructure investment for its economic growth.
According to the National Planning Commission's estimates, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 requires NPR 21.065 trillion (USD 145.07 billion). This amount cannot be raised solely from domestic sources, making foreign investment indispensable.
Due to the impact of the Gen Z movement, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nepal decreased by about 40 percent in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025-2026. Although manifestos mention projects and social security programs, they do not clarify the source of investment.
India and China are the major investors in Nepal. Instead of focusing on FDI policies to attract more investment, CPN (Maoist Centre) maintains a traditional approach prioritizing Nepal's sovereignty and self-reliance. This includes addressing border issues with India through dialogue and multilateral forums. Meanwhile, RSP and RPP have yet to publicly release their foreign policy or strategy.
